ISSUE

Media outlets have reported statements made by university economics professor David K. Foot who was quoted as saying that “demand [for university education in Canada] may well be going down as the baby boom echo leaves our system.”¹ Professor Foot also suggests that the recent trend of a higher proportion of secondary school graduates choosing universities is likely to slow and may even reverse, resulting in potential enrolment declines at universities in the latter half of the second decade.

ONTARIO’S POPULATION TRENDS

Ontario’s 18- to 21-year-old population will grow by 53,000 from 2006 to 2014, according to the Ontario Ministry of Finance.² While this cohort’s size will decline subsequently, it still will be slightly higher in 2021 than today; and by 2031, it will be 43,000 larger than today. In effect, the main demographic groupenters university for undergraduate education will remain robust into the second decade and even beyond.

Similarly, Ontario’s 22- to 29-year-old cohort – the pool that university professional and graduate programs draw upon – is projected to increase in size by over 200,000 by 2021.

UNIVERSITY PARTICIPATION

Professor Foot recognizes that “increasing participation rates can modify … demographic trends”³ and can lead to growth in university enrolment. In fact, historically, that has been the case: for example, between 1987 and 1997, the size of the 18- to 21-year-old cohort declined, but participation rates rose more than enough to offset that shrinkage so that enrolment grew or remained steady throughout the period.

The demand for university education has been and will remain strong. Participation rates among the 18- to 21-year-old group have been rising steadily in recent years, and the demand for graduate education is also experiencing an upward trend. It is being increasingly recognized that university graduates earn significantly more than those who complete only high school or college⁴ and that “advanced degrees and advanced research are increasingly important.”⁵

CONCLUSION

With the growth in the underlying pool combined with rising participation rates, there will likely be a strong demand for university places in Ontario for the foreseeable future.

Ontario universities will see their student population grow by almost 50% over this decade. Reinforced by a steady progression of students moving on to graduate and professional programs, there should be continued growth in the university student population in Ontario over the second decade of this century as well.

Published January 24, 2007

1 Student shortage on horizon, North Bay Nugget, January 22, 2007.
2 Available on Ontario Finance’s website, www.fin.gov.on.ca/english/demographics/index.html.
3 “The Baby Boomer’s Lingering Echo,” Academic Matters, Spring 2006.
4 Post Postsecondary Education in Canada: Returns to University, College and Trades Education, Daniel Boothby and Torben Drewes, Canadian Public Policy, Vol. XXXII, No. 1, 2006.
5 Mission Possible, The Canada Project Final Report Volume 1, Conference Board of Canada, January 2007.